Mingaki eminye iminyaka imboni yokugcina amandla engase idume?

Ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva yemboni kanye nokuhlaziywa kwethrendi ngo-2025, imboni yokugcina amandla izoqhubeka nokugcina ukukhula okusheshayo esikhathini esizayo, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke nokushisa kuze kube okungenani ngo-2030, futhi kancane kancane isuke ekukhuleni esikalini iye ekuthuthukisweni kwekhwalithi ephezulu. Okulandelayo ukuhunyushwa okuphelele okuvela kubukhulu bezinto eziyinhloko zokushayela, amandla okukhula kwemakethe, ukuqondiswa kobuchwepheshe obuphindaphindayo kanye nezingozi ezingaba khona:

1. Izici zokushayela eziyinhloko: inqubomgomo + isidingo + ubuchwepheshe "troika"

Ukwesekwa kwenqubomgomo kuyaqhubeka nokukhula

Ngaphansi komgomo we-China "we-dual carbon", ukugcinwa kwamandla amasha kuchazwa ngokucacile njengosekelo olubalulekile lokwakha uhlelo olusha lwamandla. Ngo-2025, ukugxilwa kwenqubomgomo kuzoshintshela ekuthuthukisweni kwezinqubo ezigxile emakethe, okuhlanganisa isinxephezelo senani likagesi, ukuhweba endaweni, amamodeli okugcinwa kwamandla okwabelwana ngawo, njll., ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuguqulwa kwendawo yokugcina amandla isuke “eqhutshwa yinqubomgomo” iye “eqhutshwa yimakethe”. Isibonelo, izindawo eziningi zethule izinqubomgomo ezintsha zokuqashisa amandla okugcina amandla ukuze kuhlolwe imigudu yemali engenayo yokugcina amandla ukuze ibambe iqhaza emakethe yamandla.

Ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle, i-United States, i-Europe, i-Middle East nezinye izindawo zigqugquzela isidingo ngezibonelelo, izinxephezelo zentela kanye nezidingo zamandla okukhiqiza asendaweni. Isibonelo, ekuphenduleni ekwenyukeni kwezintengo zokugcinwa kwamandla ukuya ku-25% ngo-2026, i-United States izobona ukushesha ukufaka ngo-2025.

Isidingo esiqinile sokwanda kokungena kwamandla amasha

Ingxenye yokuphehlwa kwamandla amasha iyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka (i-China kulindeleke ukuthi idlule ama-20% ngo-2025), futhi ukuguquguquka kwayo kudinga ukugcinwa kwamandla okulawula izinga eliphezulu kanye nemvamisa. Ingxenye yomhlaba wonke yokugcinwa kwamandla amasha iyanda. Ngo-2025, umthamo omusha we-photovoltaic ofakwe emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ufinyelele ku-490GW, okuqhubekisela phambili ukukhula ngesikhathi esisodwa kwesidingo sokugcinwa kwamandla. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izimo ezivelayo ezifana nezikhungo zedatha zinesidingo esiqhumayo "sokuhlanganiswa kwesitoreji se-photovoltaic", futhi izikhungo zedatha ye-photovoltaic-powered data eMpumalanga Ephakathi sezivele zingokonga.

Inqubekelaphambili yezobuchwepheshe kanye nokwehliswa kwezindleko

Ubuchwepheshe beselula yebhethri: amaseli ebhethri anomthamo omkhulu (500Ah+) kanye nezinhlelo zokugcina amandla esikhathi eside (4h+) asheshisa ukuthandwa kwawo. Ngo-2025, izindleko zezinhlelo zokugcina amandla kulindeleke ukuthi zehle ngo-15% -20% uma kuqhathaniswa no-202435.

Ukusetshenziswa kwezinto ezintsha: Amabhethri e-sodium-ion asengene esigabeni sokuthengisa, futhi izinzuzo zamabhethri e-solid-state ekuphepheni nempilo ziyavela kancane kancane. Unyaka ka-2025 ungase ube unyaka wokuqala wokufaka isicelo esikhulu.

Ukuthuthukiswa okuhlakaniphile: Ubuchwepheshe be-AI buthuthukisa ukuhlela isistimu yokugcinwa kwamandla kanye nesixwayiso samaphutha, futhi ubuchwepheshe obunamawele edijithali buthuthukisa ukusebenza nokusebenza kahle kokulungiswa510.

2. Amandla okukhula kwemakethe: Ukuqubuka kwezindawo eziningi zomhlaba, amathuba esakhiwo agqanyisiwe

Ukuhlukaniswa kwezimakethe zesifunda

I-China: Ngo-2025, umthamo ofakiwe ohlangothini lwegridi yomthombo kulindeleke ukuthi udlule u-110GWh, i-Inner Mongolia, i-Xinjiang nezinye izifundazwe ezintsha zamandla ezihamba phambili; izinga lokukhula kokugcinwa kwamandla ezimboni kanye nezohwebo ngasohlangothini lwabasebenzisi lidlula ama-50%, futhi ukuthengwa kwezindawo ezimaphakathi kwamabhizinisi asebenzisa amandla aphezulu maphakathi neChina sekuphenduke inkambiso.

E-United States: Ukujaha ukufaka isitoreji samandla sangaphambi kwemitha kuye kwaqhubeza amandla amasha afakiwe ukuthi adlule ama-45GWh ngo-2025, futhi imakethe enenzuzo enkulu ihehe izinkampani zaseShayina ukuthi zikhiphe umthamo wokukhiqiza wendawo.

I-Europe: Uxhaso lwenqubomgomo kanye nezindlela zemakethe yamandla sezivuthiwe, futhi izinga lokukhula kulindeleke ukuthi lidlule ama-60% ngo-2025, iJalimane neSpain njengezimakethe ezikhulayo eziyinhloko.

Middle East: Izinhlelo ezintsha zokushintsha amandla e-Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates nakwamanye amazwe ziveze amaphrojekthi ezinga le-GWh, okungenzeka kube imakethe yesine ngobukhulu emhlabeni yokugcina amandla ngo-2025.

Amathuba wethrekhi ahlukaniswe ngezigaba

Isitoreji esikhulu: Umthamo womhlaba omusha ofakiwe ubalelwa ngaphezu kuka-70%, ngamaphrojekthi wezinga le-10GWh eMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye neziteshi zamandla ezizimele zokulondoloza amandla e-United States okuba amandla amakhulu.

Isitoreji samandla embonini nesokuhweba: Izinga lokukhula kwemakethe yaphesheya lidlula u-100%, futhi izimo zohlelo lokusebenza ziyahlukahluka (njengezikhungo zedatha namapaki ezimboni).

Isitoreji samandla sesikhathi eside: Isidingo samasistimu amade angaphezu kwamahora angu-4 sesikhulile, futhi ukuthengiswa kwamabhethri agelezayo kanye nobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla omoya obucindezelweyo bukhulile.

3. Isiqondiso sokuphindaphinda kobuchwepheshe: ukusuka "kukhulu" kuya "kuhlakaniphile"

Amaseli ebhethri anomthamo omkhulu kanye nesistimu Ukuhlanganiswa

Ngo-2025, amandla amaseli ebhethri ajwayelekile azofinyelela ku-400Ah+, futhi umthamo wezinhlelo zokugcina amandla eziqukathi ezingamamitha angu-20 uzodlula u-8MWh. Izinkampani ezihamba phambili ezifana ne-CATL ne-Envision Energy zizohola ekuthuthukisweni kobuchwepheshe.

Impumelelo kubuchwepheshe obusha bokugcina amandla

Amabhethri e-sodium-ion: I-BYD, i-CATL kanye nabanye bethule imikhiqizo ezinikele yokugcina amandla, futhi izindleko zokukhiqiza ngobuningi kulindeleke ukuthi zibe ngaphansi kunalezo zamabhethri e-lithium ngo-2025.

Amabhethri esimo esiqinile: I-Qingtao Energy, i-Tailan New Energy namanye amaphrojekthi afakwe ekukhiqizweni, ngokuphepha okuphezulu okuvumelaniswe nezimo ezinkulu zokugcina amandla.

Isitoreji samandla sohlobo lwegridi: I-Huawei ne-Sungrow babeke ubuchwepheshe bokusekela igridi obusebenzayo, futhi izinga lokungena lingafinyelela ku-7GW ngo-2025.

Intelligence kanye nezinto ezintsha emisha

I-AI inika amandla ukubikezela impilo yebhethri nokusebenza nokugcinwa okuphephile, futhi amadivayisi e-silicon carbide (SiC) athuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kweziguquli zokugcinwa kwamandla, okuqhubekisela phambili ukuminyana kwamandla esistimu ukuthi kwenyuke ngo-30%.

4. Izingozi nezinselele ezingaba khona

Ukushintsha imboni nokuncintisana kwaqina

Ngo-2024, ukusakazwa kwangaphakathi kwenani eliphansi kuzoholela ekuphumeni kwamabhizinisi amancane naphakathi nendawo. Ngo-2025, isabelo semakethe samabhizinisi ayi-10 aphezulu singase sidlule ama-85%, futhi amabhizinisi anobuchwepheshe obusalele emuva noma uchungechunge lwemali entekenteke azobhekana nokuqedwa.

Ukungaqiniseki kwezinqubomgomo nezindlela zemakethe

Kwezinye izifunda, imithetho yokuthumela isitoreji samandla ayiphelele, futhi imali engenayo yomehluko wesigodi esiphezulu ayizinzile; inqubomgomo yentela yase-US kanye nezidingo zamandla okukhiqiza endaweni eMpumalanga Ephakathi zandisa ubunzima bokuya phesheya kwezilwandle.

Izingqinamba zobuchwepheshe kanye nezingcindezi zezindleko

Ukwenziwa kwemboni kagesi we-sodium kuvinjelwa ukuguquguquka kwentengo ye-lithium, izindleko zokukhiqiza ngobuningi zamabhethri esimo esiqinile ziphezulu, futhi izindleko zokugcina amandla esikhathi eside zidinga ukwehliswa nakakhulu zibe ngaphansi kuka-0.3 yuan/kWh.

5. I-Future Outlook: Ukukhula okuphezulu kungalindelwa ngaphambi kuka-2030

Usayizi weMakethe

Kulinganiselwa ukuthi umthamo ofakiwe wokugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke uzodlula u-250GWh ngo-2025, futhi indawo yemakethe izodlula ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-200; ngo-2030, amandla afakiwe aseShayina ahlanganisiwe okugcina amandla amasha angase afinyelele ku-220GW, futhi inani eliphelele lomkhiqizo wemboni lizodlula ama-yuan ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezi-3.

Isiqondiso sokutshala izimali

Isixhumanisi sesithiyo esiphezulu: Iziguquli zesitoreji samandla (PCS) kanye nezihlanganisi zesistimu (ezifana ne-Sungrow) zinenzuzo eqinile kanye ne-premium ebalulekile ezimakethe zaphesheya kwezilwandle.

Izinkampani ezihamba phambili kwezobuchwepheshe: I-CATL (amaseli ebhethri), i-Haichen Energy Storage (ugesi we-sodium), i-Huawei (isitoreji samandla sohlobo lwegridi), njll. zinezinzuzo zokuqala zokuhambisa.

Ithrekhi yesikhathi eside yokugcina amandla: Amabhethri ageleza uketshezi namaphrojekthi okugcina amandla omoya acindezelwe athole ukwesekwa kwenqubomgomo futhi afanele isakhiwo sesikhathi eside.

"Umlilo" wemboni yokugcina amandla uzoqhubeka okungenani kuze kube ngu-2030, kodwa imodeli yokukhula izosuka ekwandiseni okubanzi kuya emisebenzini eqhutshwa ubuchwepheshe kanye nemakethe ehlungiwe. Eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo, izinkampani ezinobuchwepheshe obuyisisekelo namandla okuhlelwa komhlaba jikelele zizobusa imakethe, futhi ukushuba kokusekelwa kwenqubomgomo, isivinini sokunciphisa izindleko zobuchwepheshe, kanye nenqubekelaphambili yokuguqulwa kwemakethe yamandla yizinto eziguquguqukayo ezibalulekile zokuduma okuqhubekayo kwemboni. Abatshalizimali bangagxila emikhakheni engaphansi efana nesitoreji esikhulu, indawo yokugcina amandla ezimbonini nezokuhweba, kanye nogesi we-sodium/amabhethri e-solid-state