Isitoreji samandla ezentengiselwano nezimboni singaletha ugqozi lwentuthuko onyakeni ozayo!

Ngokujula koguquko lwesakhiwo samandla omhlaba kanye nomgomo “wekhabhoni embaxambili”, ukugcinwa kwamandla okuhweba kanye nezimboni kuveza amathuba entuthuko angakaze abonwe. Kulindeleke ukuthi ngonyaka ka-2025, imakethe yomhlaba wonke yokugcina amandla ezimboni nezentengiselwano izokhombisa ukukhula okunamandla, ukwesekwa kwenqubomgomo okuvela kohulumeni, ibhalansi ekhulayo phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe kanye nesidingo, kanye namathemba enzuzo enkulu, ndawonye kuqhubekisela phambili le ngxenye ibe yingqophamlando entsha.

Okokuqala, Usayizi Wemakethe kanye Nesibikezelo Sekhono Esifakiwe

* Usayizi Wemakethe: Ngokombiko weDaintelo, imakethe yomhlaba wonke yokugcina amandla ezimbonini nezohwebo izoba cishe ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-15 zamarandi ngo-2023, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule ifinyelele ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-45 ngo-2032 ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esihlanganisiwe (CAGR) sika-12.5%.

* Amandla afakiwe: I-TrendForce ilindele ukuthi umthamo womhlaba wonke ofakiwe wesitoreji samandla esisha ukuthi ufinyelele ku-86 GW/221 GWh ngo-2025, ukukhula konyaka nonyaka okungama-27%/36% kusukela ngo-2024, lapho ukugcinwa kwamandla okuseceleni kwezimboni nokuhweba kudlala indima ebalulekile.

* Ukusebenza kwemakethe okuhlukene (isb, imakethe yase-US)

Ngokombiko we-US Energy Storage Monitor oshicilelwe ngokuhlanganyela yi-American Council for Clean Energy (ACP) kanye no-Wood Mackenzie, imakethe yokugcina amandla yase-US (usizo, ukusatshalaliswa, ukuhweba, nezimboni) izokwengeza cishe u-15.2 GW/48.7 GWh wokufakwa okusha ngo-2025, okuyikhona:

Uhlangothi lwezinsiza: kulindeleke ukuthi lukhule ngo-22%, lubalwa ngesabelo esiphezulu;

Isitoreji samandla asabalalisiwe: siguquguquka kakhulu ngenqubomgomo, ukulungiswa kokukhuthaza;

Uhlangothi lwezohwebo nezimboni: luhlala luqinile, nokufakwa okusha okungaba ngu-0.4 GW/0.8 GWh, okukhuphuke cishe ngo-11% unyaka nonyaka.

* Ukusebenza kwemakethe yomhlaba wonke

Ngokusho kuka-Wood Mackenzie Q2 2024 “Global Energy Storage Market Outlook”, ekupheleni kuka-2024, umthamo womhlaba wonke (ngaphandle kwesitoreji esipompeliwe) ohlanganisiwe ongu-159 GW/358 GWh, kulindeleke ukuthi kusukela ngo-2024-2033 kwengezwe omunye u-926 GW/2 789 XNUMX GW.

Le datha ibonisa ukuthi, ngokuthuthukiswa kokuvuthwa kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nezindleko eziqhubekayo nokwehla, isisekelo esifakiwe sokugcina amandla ezimbonini nezohwebo sizoletha ukwanda okukhulu onyakeni ozayo.

Okwesibili, i-multi-national superposition evumayo

1. I-the united states

* Umthetho Wokuncishiswa Kokwehla Kwamandla Emali (i-IRA) uyaqhubeka nokuhlinzeka ngekhredithi yentela yokutshala imali engafika ku-30% (ITC), kanye nezikhuthazo ezengeziwe zokukhiqiza ekhaya kanye namaphrojekthi omphakathi ahola kancane.

* I-FERC Order 841 icindezela ukuvula izimakethe zikagesi endaweni yokugcina amandla futhi ikhuthaza ukubamba iqhaza kwesitoreji ekulawuleni imvamisa kanye nezimakethe zamandla.

* U-3.8 GW wesitoreji samandla esisha e-US ngo-Q3 2024, akhuphuke ngo-80% unyaka nonyaka, futhi acishe abe ngu-12 GW afakwa minyaka yonke, ukuphakama okungasoze kwabuna.

2. China

* Uhlelo Lweminyaka Eyi-14 Lweminyaka Emihlanu lubeka isitoreji samandla esisha njengento ebalulekile yokuthuthukiswa, iphakamisa ukuthi ngo-2025, umthamo ofakiwe wokugcina amandla uzofinyelela kuma-kilowatts ayizigidi ezingu-30 (GW).

* Izibonelelo zentela yezifundazwe eziningi kanye nokwakhiwa kwemakethe yamandla ukuze kusheshiswe uhlangothi lwezimboni nolwezohwebo lokufika kwesistimu yokugcina amandla.

3. Europe

* Ukubuyekezwa kwe-EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II/III) ukuze kuqiniswe izimfuneko zokuthuthukiswa kwe-synergistic kokugcinwa kwamandla namandla amasha.

* IJalimane, i-United Kingdom kanye namanye amazwe bazokwethula i-hydrogen eluhlaza, amanethiwekhi okusabalalisa okokugcina amandla asabalalisa uxhaso ukusiza amabhizinisi ehlise izindleko zokwakha.

4. Amazwe asafufusa

* I-International Energy Agency (IEA) ilindele ukuthi utshalomali lwamandla ahlanzekile emhlabeni wonke lufinyelele ku-US$2.2 trillion ngo-2025, lapho kuzotshalwa khona cishe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-66 ekugcinweni kwamandla, okugqamisa ukuzethemba kwenhloko-dolobha yamazwe ngamazwe kumathemba enzuzo okugcinwa kwamandla.

Izinzuzo zenqubomgomo ziyanqwabelana; abasebenzisi bezimboni nabezentengiselwano bangathola izikhuthazo eziningi ukuze bathuthukise ngokuphawulekayo ukwenzeka kwephrojekthi kanye nokubuyisela ekutshalweni kwezimali.

Okwesithathu, ukutholakala ngokweqile noma ukuswela?

* Uhlangothi lokunikezela: ngokunwetshwa kwamandla okukhiqiza amabhethri (izimboni zamabhethri e-China, South Korea, nase-Europe zisaqhubeka nokuvela), izindleko zezinhlelo zokugcina amandla zehle zisuka ku-US$780/kWh ngo-2013 zaya ku-US$139/kWh ngo-2023, zehle ngaphezu kuka-80%.

* Uhlangothi lwesidingo: uhlangothi lokusebenzisa amandla ezimbonini nelezentengiselwano lubhekene nokwenyuka okukhulu kwentengo kagesi kanye nokwehluka kwentengo kagesi esigodini, inkokhiso yesidingo, kanye nengcindezi yokuhlola umkhawulo wamandla, ikakhulukazi kumapaki okukhiqiza, izikhungo zedatha, iziteshi zokushaja, nezinye izimo zokusebenzisa amandla aphezulu. Isidingo sokugcina amandla sesikhulile.

* Izidingo zokuqina kwegridi: ukungena okuphezulu kwamandla amasha kuholela ekulawuleni igridi eyinkimbinkimbi, isitoreji samandla sezimboni nezohwebo singanikeza "ukulawulwa kwamafrikhwensi esizeni", "i-edge standby", nezinye izinsizakalo zokunciphisa ingcindezi kugridi yamandla.

Ngokombono obanzi, ngaphansi komphumela ohlanganyelwe wokunciphisa izindleko kanye nesidingo esihlukanisiwe, izinhlangothi zokuhlinzeka nezidingo zisebenza ngokushesha, futhi kancane kancane imakethe iyashintsha isuka kokuthi "eqhutshwa ngokuhlinzekwayo" iye "kukufuna-ukudonsa".

Okwesine, imodi yemali engenayo ehlukahlukene yokugcinwa kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele

1. I-Peak ne-Valley Arbitrage kanye ne-Peak Shaving, kanye nokugcwalisa isigodi

* Amabhizinisi angonga u-15% -30% wezindleko zikagesi ngokushaja ngesikhathi sasesigodini futhi achithe ngesikhathi esiphezulu.

* Kuhlanganiswe namandla okukhiqiza amandla e-photovoltaic, izinga lokuzisebenzisa likhuphukela ngaphezu kwama-70%, lifinyeza nakakhulu isikhathi sokubuyisela.

2. Funa impendulo kanye nezinsizakalo ezisizayo

* Ukubamba iqhaza ezinsizeni ezisizayo ezifana nokulawulwa kwamafrikhwensi, ukulinda okujikelezayo, isiqalo esimnyama, njll. emakethe kagesi, ngenani lonyaka lembuyiselo elifinyelela ku-2% -5% (kuye ngemithetho yemakethe yendawo).

* Imali engenayo yemakethe yamandla kwamanye amazwe ibalelwa ku-10-20% wemali engenayo iyonke.

3. Izinkontileka Zokuphatha Amandla (EMCs) nokwabelana kwesitoreji samandla

* Izinkampani zangaphandle zokuphatha amandla (ESCOs) zisiza amakhasimende ezentengiselwano nezimboni ukuthi afinyelele "i-zero threshold" futhi ehlise ingcindezi yemali ngokusebenzisa imodeli "yokuthenga amandla okuthenga i-zero-investimenti".

* Imodeli ye-Multi-User Virtual Power Plant (VPP), ehlanganisa izimpahla zokugcinwa kwamandla ezimboni kanye nezohwebo ukuze kutholwe amaphrimiyamu aphezulu emakethe kagesi. 4.

4. Imakethe yeCarbon kanye neCarbon Allowance Trading

* Izinhlelo zokugcina amandla zingaxhunyaniswa nezinkundla zokuhweba ngekhabhoni ukuze kuncishiswe ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni futhi kuzuze amakhredithi ekhabhoni ngokunciphisa ukuthengwa kwamandla ekhabhoni ephezulu.

Imodeli yenzuzo ehlukahlukene, ukuze amaphrojekthi okugcina amandla ezimboni kanye nezohwebo angabi nomsebenzi wokonga kuphela, kodwa futhi kancane kancane abe yindawo entsha yokukhula kwenzuzo.

Isitoreji samandla embonini nesokuhweba simi ngobusuku bangaphambi "kokuthuthukiswa kokuqhuma". Kusukela kusabelo senqubomgomo, isikali semakethe, ibhalansi yokuhlinzeka kanye nesidingo kuya enzuzweni ehlukahlukene, zonke izici zikhomba esiphethweni esifanayo: unyaka olandelayo kuzoba indawo yokugcina amandla ezimbonini nezohwebo ukuze kusheshiswe ukufika kanye nesikali sokusetshenziswa kwesikhathi esibucayi. Kubakhiqizi bemishini yokugcina amandla, izinkampani zesevisi yamandla, kanye nabasebenzisi bebhizinisi, ukuhlela kusenesikhathi, izixazululo zasendaweni zokulima okujulile zizowina amathuba emakethe.