Ingabe Isitoreji Samandla Singalingisa Isimangaliso Sokukhula Kwelanga Nomoya?

Ingabe Isitoreji Samandla Singalingisa Isimangaliso Sokukhula Kwelanga Nomoya?

Amathuba Amasha E-Trillion-Dollar Okushintsha Kwamandla

Ukusuka “Ekunwebeni Okusheshayo” kuya “Ekuthuthukisweni Kwekhwalithi Nokusebenza Kahle”

Kusukela ekupheleni kukaFebruwari 2025, amandla e-China afakiwe anamandla elanga nomoya adlula ama-kilowatts ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1.456, ehlula amandla ashisayo okokuqala ngqa ukuze abe umthombo wamandla omkhulu wezwe. I-Solar ilokhu ithuthuka ngezinga lokukhula elingaphezu kwama-40% ngonyaka, liqhutshwa amaphrojekthi asabalalisiwe kanye nokufakwa kwesisekelo senqwaba ngezinga elikhulu. Nakuba ukukhula kwamandla omoya kwehle kwafika ku-17.6% ngenxa yokugunyazwa kwephrojekthi nemijikelezo yokwakha, umoya ogwini lolwandle nokulungiswa kabusha kwamapayipi omoya asebekhulile kusalokhu kuyizisusa zesikhathi eside zokukhula. Kodwa-ke, ukuntengantenga okungokwemvelo kwezinto ezivuselelekayo kanye nezinkinga zokuhlanganisa igridi kwenyukile, njengoba isilinganiso samahora okusetshenziswa kwamayunithi okuphehla ugesi sehle ngamahora angama-61 ukusuka onyakeni odlule. Lokhu kuphoqe ukukhula kokutshalwa kwezimali kwegridi ukuthi kwenyuke kufinyelele ku-33.5%, okubeka ukugcinwa kwamandla endaweni obala “njengesizinda sokulawula” esiyinhloko.

Ukusuka kokuthi “Kuqhutshwa Inqubomgomo” kuye “Ukubona Inani”

Kusukela ngo-2024, amandla afakiwe ahlanganisiwe ohlobo olusha lokugcina amandla (okungukuthi, amabhethri) e-China afinyelele ku-74.66 GW, akhuphuka ngo-131.86% unyaka nonyaka futhi eba uhlobo oluhamba phambili, esikhundleni sokugcinwa kwamanzi okupompa. Ijubane elinjalo lokukhula ligqugquzelwa yizizathu ezilandelayo:

Ukuqanjwa kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nezindleko ziyancipha: Amanani ebhethri e-lithium-ion ehle ngaphezu kwamaphesenti angama-60 kusukela ngo-2020, futhi ukugcinwa komoya okucindezelwe okusezingeni elingu-300 MW kanye nobuchwepheshe bokugcina i-flywheel bungene ezimbonini, okuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kohlelo ngo-3-5%.

Izinzuzo zenqubomgomo: Uhlelo Lweminyaka Eyi-14 Lweminyaka Emihlanu Lokuthuthukiswa Kwesitoreji Samandla Ohlobo Olusha lwethule izinjongo zesikali esicacile ngo-2025, kanye nemishini yesifunda efana nesinxephezelo somthamo kanye nenani eliphakeme lesigodi ukuze kuhlanganiswe ukugcinwa kwezimakethe zikagesi.

Izidingo zegridi nezinhlelo zokusebenza ezihlukahlukene: Njengoba iphesenti lokuvuselelekayo lidlule u-50% womthamo ofakiwe, izidingo zokuguquguquka kwegridi zadlula ophahleni. Isitoreji manje senza izindima ezibalulekile ekusetshenzisweni okufana nokudluliswa kwesisekelo esivuselelekayo, ukushefa okuphakeme kwezimboni/kwezentengiselwano, kanye nokuphakelwa kwamandla okuphuthumayo. Phakathi nenani eliphakeme lasehlobo lika-2024, isitoreji sabalelwa ku-45% wemijikelezo kazwelonke yokushaja/yokukhipha, ngaphezu kwama-85% kwezinye izifundazwe.

I-Divergent Growth Logics nezinselele

Nakuba bobabili bejabulela ilebula yamandla ahlanzekile, okuvuselelekayo nokugcinwa kuzolandela izindlela ezihlukene:

Amandla ezimakethe: Ilanga/umoya unemixhaso kanye nokwehliswa kwezindleko okulinganiselwe okufanele uthembele kukho, kuyilapho isitoreji kufanele senze inzuzo ekwenzeni imali ngezimakethe zikagesi.

Izindlela zobuchwepheshe: Ubuchwepheshe belanga/ komoya buqondene ngqo nomkhiqizo (isb., i-silicon PV, amaturbine aphakelwa kabili), kanti ukugcinwa kuyahlukahluka (i-lithium, amabhethri agelezayo, umoya ocindezelwe, njll.).

Amamodeli wemali engenayo: Okuvuselelekayo kuthokozela amanani entengo okuphakelayo, kuyilapho isitoreji singena emifudlaneni eminingi: i-arbitrage yamandla, izinsiza ezihambisanayo, nokuqashiswa kwamandla.

Izinselele zamanje zifaka ukusetshenziswa kancane (amaphesenti angama-30 amanani omthamo kwamanye amaphrojekthi), izehlakalo zokuphepha eziholela ekulahlekelweni ukuzethemba, nezinqubo ezingaqediwe zokuthunyelwa kwezifunda. Izinqubomgomo ezifana noMthetho Wamandla ka-2024, nokho, zisheshisa izindlela ezisekelwe emakethe zokusetshenziswa kwesitoreji ekuqiniseni igridi kanye nokukhokhwa kwamandla.

Sibhekephi Isitoreji?

Ukuqagela kwemboni kubona umthamo wohlobo olusha waseShayina wokugcina amandla ku-220 GW ngo-2030, nosayizi wemakethe ongaphezu kuka-¥3 trillion. Amathrendi amathathu ayisisekelo salo mbono:

Izidingo zokwenza igridi ibe yesimanjemanje: Okuvuselelekayo kuzoba amashumi ezigidigidi zama-kilowatts ngo-2060, kanti isitoreji sizoba yi-vertex yokuhlanganiswa kwe-"generation-grid-load-storage".

Ukuhlukahluka kobuchwepheshe: Amabhethri e-sodium-ion, ukugcinwa kwamandla adonsela phansi, nobunye ubuchwepheshe sekuvele kusezigabeni zokuhlola, kuyilapho izindleko zokugcina isikhathi eside (amahora angu-4+) zizokwehla ngo-40%.

Ukunwetshwa kwamazwe ngamazwe: Amaphesenti angama-90 awo wonke amabhethri omhlaba e-lithium akhiqizwa amafemu aseShayina, anesidingo esikhulu ezimakethe ezifana neNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kanye neNingizimu Afrika ebhebhezela ukulungiswa kwefekthri.

Isitoreji Akusona “Esinye Ilanga/Umoya” — “Ingqalasizinda Entsha” Yenguquko Yamandla

Ngenkathi ilanga nomoya kunikeza "isizukulwane," isitoreji sinakekela "ukuzinza." Ukuvela kwayo kuncike ekuguqulweni kwemakethe yamandla, ukukhula kobuchwepheshe, kanye nezimo zokusetshenziswa ezihlakaziwe. Njengoba inqubomgomo, izimakethe, kanye nokusungula kuhlangana, ukugcinwa kusendleleni ehlukene kusukela ezintweni ezivuselelekayo futhi kumile onqenqemeni lokuba umngcele othembisa kakhulu wamadola ayizigidigidi emqhudelwaneni wokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni.