Imodeli Yokubambisana Edidiyelwe "Yobuchwepheshe + Ukusebenza + Imali" Ihola Uguquko Lwemakethe Yesitoreji Samandla

1. Ukugcwala Kwezimakethe Nezinselele Zamamodeli Womkhiqizo Owodwa

Eminyakeni yamuva nje, imakethe yokugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke ibhekane nokukhula okukhulu. Ngokusho kwedatha ye-BloombergNEF, umthamo omusha wokugcina amandla emhlabeni wonke ufinyelele ku-45 gigawatts (GW) ngo-2023 (okulingana cishe namahora angu-97 gigawatt), okuphawula ukwanda okukhulu konyaka okurekhodiwe. Kodwa-ke, njengoba imakethe isondela ekugcwaliseni, imodeli yokuthengisa yomkhiqizo owodwa idonsa kanzima ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zemakethe ezehlukene. Isibonelo, e-China, izindleko zezinhlelo zokugcina amandla e-turnkey zehle zafinyelela ku-$115 i-kWh ngayinye—ukwehla okungama-43% unyaka nonyaka—ukubonisa ukuncintisana kwentengo okuqinisiwe.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, izimo zokufakwa kwezicelo zamasistimu okugcina amandla ziyakhula ukusuka ekulawuleni imvamisa yegridi kanye nokulinganisa kwe-peak-valley kuya ekushajweni kwemoto kagesi. Amamodeli endabuko omkhiqizo owodwa ngeke esakwazi ukubhekana nalezi zidingo ezinezinhlangothi eziningi. Ngakho-ke, imboni idinga ngokuphuthumayo ukuhlola amamodeli ebhizinisi amasha ukuze ivumelane namashifu ezimakethe.

1. Ukunyuka Kwezixazululo Ezihlanganisiwe

Ubhekene nezinselelo zemakethe, umkhakha wokugcinwa kwamandla uya ngokuya uguqukela ekuhlinzekeni ngezixazululo ezididiyelwe. Le modeli idlula ukuhlanganiswa komkhiqizo okulula, okubonisa ukuhlanganiswa okujulile kobuchwepheshe, ukusebenza, kanye nemali. Isibonelo, imodeli ye-Energy Storage as a Service (ESaaS) isivelile, evumela abasebenzisi ukuthi bafinyelele izinsiza zokugcina amandla ngezinhlelo zokuqashisa ngaphandle kokubhekana nezindleko eziphezulu zokutshalwa kwezimali kwangaphambili.

Ngokusho kokuqagela kwe-Market.us, imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-ESaaS kulindeleke ukuthi ikhule isuka ku- $2.4 billion ngo-2023 iye ku- $8.6 billion ngo-2033, imele izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka (CAGR) lika-13.6%. Lokhu kukhula kuqhutshwa ngokuyinhloko ukwanda kwesidingo sezisombululo zokugcinwa kwamandla eziguquguqukayo, ezingalawuleki kuyo yonke imikhakha yezimboni, ezentengiselwano, kanye nezinsiza.

1. III. Imodeli Ehlanganisiwe Yokuhlanganisa Ubuchwepheshe, Ukusebenza, kanye Nemali Enkulu

Ngaphakathi kohlaka lwezisombululo oludidiyelwe, ukusebenzisana ngokubambisana phakathi kobuchwepheshe, ukusebenza, kanye nemali kubalulekile. Okokuqala, ubuchwepheshe buhlinzeka ngamakhono abalulekile wezinhlelo zokugcina amandla, okuhlanganisa ama-Battery Management Systems (BMS), ama-Advanced Energy Management Systems (EMS), nama-algorithms wokuhlela ahlakaniphile. Okwesibili, isendlalelo sokusebenza silawula ukuthunyelwa kwesistimu, ukulungiswa, kanye nokwenza kahle ukuqinisekisa ukusebenza kahle. Okokugcina, imali eyinhloko ihlinzeka ngoxhaso lwezezimali, ikakhulukazi phakathi nezigaba zokuqala, isiza amaphrojekthi anqobe izingqinamba zemali.

Isibonelo, inkundla yokuqalisa yaseFinland ye-Capalo AI "yesitshalo samandla abonakalayo" isebenzisa i-AI ukuze ibikezele ukukhiqizwa nokusetshenziswa kwamandla avuselelekayo, ithuthukise ukuthunyelwa kwesitoreji sebhethri ukuze kuthuthukiswe inzuzo. Le nkundla ibambisene nabatshalizimali abafana ne-MW Storage ngaphansi kwemodeli yokwabelana ngenzuzo ukuze kuthuthukiswe ngokuhlanganyela ukuthuthukiswa kwephrojekthi.

1. Ukwesekwa kanye Nezinselelo Ezimakethe Zemali

I-capital idlala indima ebalulekile kumaphrojekthi okugcina amandla. Kodwa-ke, amaphrojekthi anjalo ngokuvamile abhekana nezinselele zokutshalwa kwezimali okuphezulu kokuqala kanye nomjikelezo wembuyiselo yesikhathi eside, okwenza amamodeli ezimali avamile anganele. Ngakho-ke, kuye kwavela izindlela ezintsha zokusiza ngezimali. Ngokwesibonelo, i-European Investment Bank (EIB) ibambisana ne-Breakthrough Energy Catalyst ukuze inikeze “isikweletu esiyingozi” ngezimali zokuqalisa, ibasize banqobe “isigodi sokufa” futhi bathuthukise amaphrojekthi ngokushelela.

Ukwengeza, izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni kanye nezinxephezelo ziqhuba kakhulu ukuxhaswa kwephrojekthi yokugcina amandla. Isibonelo, i-US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) inikeza ikhredithi yentela engu-30% yezinhlelo zokuhlala zamandla okugcina amandla, okwehlisa kakhulu umgoqo wokutshalwa kwezimali kubasebenzisi.

1. Ukuguqulwa Kwemakethe

Ukuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe kuzothuthukisa izinzuzo zesistimu, ukusungulwa kokusebenza kuzonciphisa izindleko, futhi ukusekelwa kwezimali kuzoqinisekisa ukuqaliswa kwephrojekthi. Ngokwezibalo ze-BloombergNEF, ukwengezwa kwamandla okugcina amandla onyaka emhlabeni wonke kuzofinyelela kumagigawathi ayi-137 ngo-2030, nosayizi wemakethe uzokhula ufinyelele emahoreni angama-gigawatt angama-442. Lokhu kukhula kuzovela ikakhulukazi ezifundeni ezihlanganisa i-China, i-United States kanye ne-Europe.

Kuyo yonke le nqubo, ukusebenzisana okuhlangene kobuchwepheshe, ukusebenza, kanye nezimali kuzoba umnyombo wokuthuthukisa imboni. Kuphela ngokuhlanganiswa okujulile kwalezi zinto ezintathu lapho imboni yokugcina amandla ingakwazi ukugqama emqhudelwaneni omkhulu wezimakethe futhi izuze intuthuko esimeme.